Supported by slightly stronger global growth, improving export competitiveness and implementation of recently approved investment projects, India's growth is expected to recover from 4.4 per cent in 2013 to 5.4 per cent in 2014, the IMF said.
India will see a gradual growth acceleration with its GDP expected to reach 5.9 per cent this year.
While efforts are being mounted on a war footing to arrest its spread, COVID-19 will impact economic activity in India directly through domestic lockdown. The second-round effects, it said, would operate through a severe slowdown in global trade and growth.
'India is in a slowdown which most of us have not seen in our living memory.'
RBI in wait and watch mode as several risks to inflation continue to exist including a sudden reversal of food prices and oil price volatility.
Pegging the cost of the covid-19 lockdown at USD 120 billion (approximately Rs 9 lakh crores) or 4 per cent of the GDP, analysts on Wednesday sharply cut their growth estimates and stressed on the need to announce an economic package. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI), which is scheduled to announce its first bi-monthly policy review on April 3, is set to deliver a deep rate cuts and it should also be assumed that the fiscal deficit targets will be breached, analysts said.
India is in favourable position to attract foreign firms planning to relocate their manufacturing bases due to trade tension between the US and China, says Nomura.
'The outlook for private investment, which has been such a weak link for India for so long, remains challenging.'
With the government claiming that the economy has been growing robustly and the Opposition refuting these claims, the common man is none the wiser, says Rajeev Sharma.
Policy discussions now should urgently focus on the road map for serious economic and institutional reforms to put India on a sustained high growth trajectory like the Chinese economy, says Jayanta Roy.
The Reserve Bank on Wednesday hiked key benchmark policy rate by 25 basis points to 6.5 per cent, citing sticky core inflation. This is the sixth time interest rate has been hiked by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) since May last year, taking the total quantum of hike to 250 basis points. Announcing the bi-monthly monetary policy, RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) by a majority decided to raise the policy repo rate by 25 basis points and keep a 'strong vigil' on inflation outlook.
The economy has shown sharp resilience in the past and has also bounced back in good time. We could hence expect a similar trajectory next year, observes Madan Sabnavis, chief economist, CARE Ratings.
According to a new report by international management consulting firm Arthur D Little, the worst of COVID-19's impact will be felt by India's most vulnerable in terms of job loss, poverty increase and reduced per-capita income, which in turn will result in a steep decline in the Gross Domestic Product (GDP). "Given the continued rise of COVID-19 cases, we believe that a W-shaped recovery is the most likely scenario for India. This implies a GDP contraction of 10.8 per cent in FY 2020-21 and GDP growth of 0.8 per cent in FY 2021-22," the report said.
The government's programmes should be expected to generate some momentum, but the macro-economic numbers are not encouraging, observes T N Ninan.
Pakistan was "drowning" in debt and it was the new government's job to "sail this ship ashore," Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif said on Wednesday.
Earlier, the RBI cut its policy interest rate to 6.75 per cent.
Current account deficit is expected to narrow to 1 per cent.
Ad spends to revive in 2018; India likely to add Rs 47,028 crore in the next five years
It blamed delay by the Reserve Bank in cutting rates and prop up growth.
The 46-year-old chairman of the Aditya Birla Group has made at least 28 acquisitions since he took the reins of the group 18 years ago.
Hailstorms may cause Rs 12k-cr crop damage, El Nino a bigger worry.
The UN World Economic Situation and Prospects 2014 report said a mild recovery in investment as well as stronger export growth will help in the gradual GDP pick-up.
India's economic growth is likely to reach pre-COVID-19 levels by the end of the 2021-22 fiscal as the GDP contraction in this financial year is expected to be less than 8 per cent, Niti Aayog vice chairman Rajiv Kumar said on Sunday. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has also revised its forecast of economic growth for the current fiscal year (2020-21) to (-)7.5 per cent as against its earlier forecast of (-)9.5 per cent.
On the rupee, it expects some appreciation pressure on in the near term from greater portfolio flows.
Being one of the early commentators to flag economic slowdown and caution investors on corporate earnings, Gautam Chhaochharia, head of India research, UBS Securities, in an interview with Hamsini Karthik says the markets remain in an expensive zone despite the recent correction.
Given the various risks to growth, one could argue for rate cuts to be deeper than the 5 per cent terminal repo rate that we are projecting at this stage, says Kaushik Das.
The number of billionaires in China has touched 300 by the end of 2013 mainly due to real estate boom, according to a new annual ranking of the wealthiest individuals in the communist nation, world's second largest economy.
Economist Abheek Barua's insight into the global and domestic economy at the turn of the financial year.
NTPC was the top gainer, spurting 4.28 per cent. Other winners were Bajaj Auto, Bajaj Finance, Sun Pharma, ITC, Hero MotoCorp, TCS, Yes Bank, HDFC, HDFC Bank and SBI, rising up to 1.38 per cent.
Sensex firm on favourable GDP numbers for FY16.
The GST will subsume excise, service tax, value added tax, octroi etc.
The growth had slumped to sub-5 per cent in the earlier two consecutive fiscals.
The deteriorating situation in China, a market that businesses around the world rely upon for growth, has spooked investors and prompted warnings from top companies like Apple.
If oil prices rise, the government would face an uncomfortable political decision.
'The Indian economy is in slowdown and growth may stay slow,' notes Devangshu Datta.
However, Icra Rating Principal Economist Aditi Nayar feels that the numbers are a bit too optimistic and need real heavy-lifting by the Centre and the states. "The survey forecasts on real and nominal GDP will require a substantial push from Central and state spending as private sector capacity expansion is anticipated to be intermittent, and sector-specific in the next couple of quarters," she said. Nayar added that private consumption is likely to chart a differentiated recovery across income and age groups. Based on the comments made in the Survey, she expects the Union Budget to incorporate a growth in gross tax revenue of 15-16 per cent.
India's services sector growth accelerated in April, as strong demand conditions resulted in the fastest increase in new business and output in close to 13 years, a monthly survey said on Wednesday. The pick-up in demand occurred in spite of escalating price pressures. The seasonally adjusted S&P Global India Services PMI Business Activity Index rose from 57.8 in March to 62.0 in April, signalling the fastest expansion in output since mid 2010, amid a pick-up in new business growth and favourable market conditions.
HSBC maintained "overweight" rating on Indian equities, saying "fundamentals are strong".
Strong macroeconomic headwinds causing turbulence in the $245-billion Indian IT industry are yet to calm down. Top Indian IT services companies are likely to post a decline or just marginal growth in sequential revenue in Q1FY24 because of a soft discretionary spending environment. Though the first quarter is seasonally strong for IT firms, "June 2023 will be an exception", according to analysts at Kotak Institutional Equities.
Chief Economic Advisor Arvind Subramanian says that he hopes GDP growth will be at the upper end of the 7-7.5 per cent range.
